{"id":197,"date":"2016-06-09T04:50:52","date_gmt":"2016-06-09T08:50:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/?p=197"},"modified":"2016-06-09T05:20:22","modified_gmt":"2016-06-09T09:20:22","slug":"about-sam-wang-the-pec-and-nate-silver-and-538","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/about-sam-wang-the-pec-and-nate-silver-and-538\/","title":{"rendered":"About Sam Wang, the PEC, and Nate Silver and 538"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anyone with a serious interest in electoral politics ignores the Princeton Election Consortium and one of its founders, Sam Wang (disclosure: he is the son-in-law of close friends of close friends; the only way I would ever have heard of him, without stumbling on him) and speculates about November at his or her peril.<\/p>\n

It was because of Sam and his team (and they are academics in utterly other fields and disciplines\u2014Sam is, himself, a neuroscientist\u2014they also happen to be statistics junkies of the highest order) that I didn’t really sweat either the 2008 or 2012 Presidential contests. People always cite Nate Silver and his now independent organization, 538, and fairly justly, but by comparison, they are publicity hounds and not quite as accurate on all counts. Sam does it for love and deep intellectual engagement, and with no axe to grind; Nate Silver has a brand and a business.<\/p>\n

In all events, in this new turn in the 2016 campaign, with Bernie Bros and other acolytes showing their impetuosity and their, one hopes, extremely brief departure from objectivity, and with the general public riven in fear and fascination by the specimen named Donald J. Trump, it turns out that, unsurprisingly, both 538 and the PEC provide a largely ignored platform of reason and scientific probity (with the usual caveats from them that you simply never hear from the media about the reliability of all these numbers at this stage\u2014and more importantly, why they are reliable or not, important or not). It is on these, reason and scientific probity, that you should be scaling and indexing your hopes and fears. If speculation is necessary, leave it to the pros.<\/p>\n

Most of the rest, including what you think (and yes, what I think) is mainly bullshit and seats of the pants.<\/p>\n

Nate Silver says, do all the micro demographic comparisons you want, mainly the split between votes for Sanders and votes for Clinton is a portrait of the constituency of the Democratic Party at this time in this country. Bernie and Company, read it and weep. It’s not called a Democratic primary (or caucus) for nothing; and folks, remember, Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat. Ask him. Like it or not (I mainly don’t either). It’s simply facts.<\/p>\n

Sam Wang, as you can read here, says, among other things, that Trump is no, not one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (or maybe all four of them at once), he’s more likely the inevitable manifestation of where the Republican Party has by crook, and by design, allowed itself to go in the past 40 years. Republicans, take heed, you bred this monster, slouching towards Bethlehem.
\n\u2014Howard<\/p>\n

\n

http:\/\/election.princeton.edu\/2016\/06\/02\/the-realignment-myth\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Correlation<\/a>
Correlation (Cumulative) Presidential Election Outcome 1964-2008<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n

With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican Party, but rather the visible manifestation of a realignment within the party that has been brewing for years. Will national voting patterns change too?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/span><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anyone with a serious interest in electoral politics ignores the Princeton Election Consortium and one of its founders, Sam Wang […]<\/p>\n

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with a serious interest in electoral politics ignores the Princeton Election Consortium and one of its founders, Sam Wang […]","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4ZrXL-3b","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":55090,"url":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/trump-as-of-today\/","url_meta":{"origin":197,"position":0},"title":"Trump as of Today","author":"Howard","date":"2024 October 6","format":false,"excerpt":"In the Times today, there\u2019s an analysis of possible signs of encroaching loss of cognitive ability in the former president. Essentially, the signs are a broadening and intensification of tendencies that have been there at least since the famous walk down the gold escalator that defined the identifying trope and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Analysis"","block_context":{"text":"Analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/category\/analysis\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":53928,"url":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/shorts-briefs-10-may-2019-deconstructing-facebook\/","url_meta":{"origin":197,"position":1},"title":"Shorts & Briefs | 10 May 2019 | Deconstructing Facebook","author":"Howard","date":"2019 May 10","format":false,"excerpt":"I want to recommend for your current events reading today this rather long read, a New York Times opinion piece as part of their Privacy Project, intended for the Sunday Review by the co-founder of Facebook, Chris Hughes (so insinuated into the fledgling company, when it hadn\u2019t quite started to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/category\/culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Zuckerberg_Hughes_Harvard_2004_Rick_Friedman-jumbo-e1557490540632.jpg?fit=680%2C686&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Zuckerberg_Hughes_Harvard_2004_Rick_Friedman-jumbo-e1557490540632.jpg?fit=680%2C686&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Zuckerberg_Hughes_Harvard_2004_Rick_Friedman-jumbo-e1557490540632.jpg?fit=680%2C686&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54235,"url":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/testing-the-depths-of-our-incredulity\/","url_meta":{"origin":197,"position":2},"title":"Testing the Depths of Our Incredulity","author":"Howard","date":"2020 May 5","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s that meme again, a jocular George W. Bush. It does take me back, almost 20 years, with the strange effect of persuading me that my 50s just possibly might have been still occurring in the flush of my youth. I remember especially trying to explain what\u2019s what with American\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/category\/culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Miss me yet meme of GW Bush","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Miss-Me-Yet-2020-05-05_09-45-47.jpg?fit=1000%2C850&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Miss-Me-Yet-2020-05-05_09-45-47.jpg?fit=1000%2C850&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Miss-Me-Yet-2020-05-05_09-45-47.jpg?fit=1000%2C850&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Miss-Me-Yet-2020-05-05_09-45-47.jpg?fit=1000%2C850&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":172,"url":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/bertha-shorts_briefs_27_may_2016\/","url_meta":{"origin":197,"position":3},"title":"Shorts & Briefs | 29 May 2016","author":"Howard","date":"2016 May 29","format":false,"excerpt":"100 years, 70 years, 50... Verdun, Hiroshima, Vietnam... it's a busy time, and a busy week, for reconciling ourselves to one another on the planet, or doing so ceremoniously. We seem to choose nice round numbers\u2014even decades are best. I reckon in 2066, we'll be joining hands with Syrians and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/category\/culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/verdun.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/verdun.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/verdun.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/verdun.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54120,"url":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/shorts-and-briefs-2-july-2019-when-youre-smiling\/","url_meta":{"origin":197,"position":4},"title":"Shorts and Briefs | 2 July 2019 | When You’re Smiling","author":"Howard","date":"2019 July 2","format":false,"excerpt":"\"ThankYouSoMuch Mr. President_#02,\" Raffaello De Vito, licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Trump Thoughts Today This happens sometimes when I am surfing and I do my daily check as a lurker on Facebook. I saw two links in particular that caught my eye, to news stories in standard mainstream media sources.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Current Events"","block_context":{"text":"Current Events","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/category\/current-events\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-Behance-bd68e767970641.5b4cf2c32e751-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-Behance-bd68e767970641.5b4cf2c32e751-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-Behance-bd68e767970641.5b4cf2c32e751-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-Behance-bd68e767970641.5b4cf2c32e751-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-Behance-bd68e767970641.5b4cf2c32e751-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":228,"url":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/our-democracy-is-not-working-as-it-should\/","url_meta":{"origin":197,"position":5},"title":"“Our democracy is not working as it should”","author":"Howard","date":"2017 March 12","format":false,"excerpt":"That seems like clear understatement, and just two short months ago, when the guy who said it joined the Campaign Legal Center it was less so. Today it's much more so, if I'm allowed the tautology. But to fight the good fight, we must understand it's a war, not a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/category\/culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.berthamagazine.com\/frontpage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}